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Thursday, March
19th 1998
Welcome back to the global village from Hong Kong, China. Don here.
Terri will be joining us in just a moment. Our day is beginning, it's
Thursday which means we have to think about leaving Hong Kong tomorrow,
Friday, to go to Singapore. I think you reach a point in an experience
like this where you're actually looking forward to leaving because
the pace of activities, if you choose to take advantage of all the
opportunities, can get to be both overwhelming and tiring. You tend
to go to bed late and you tend to get up early as we are today and
try to pack as much into the day as possible. We have a full day of
activity today to be ended by a black tie, formal, what generally
is a spectacular dinner party to conclude our CEO University tonight
here in Hong Kong, China.
I add the word China when I say Hong Kong because it is a historic
fact that Hong Kong, which use to be a British protectorate is now
the financial, mercantile, sort of Wall Street of mainland China.
And to see the Chinese flag in Hong Kong is a reminder about a quite
revolution that has taken place and has gone exceedingly smoothly.
To travel to Singapore is no simple task, it's five hours flying time
from Hong Kong to Singapore, down the China sea to the peninsula of
Malaysia. We'll tell you more about that as we undertake that journey
which will be Friday morning for us.
To show the difference in time zones, we had a presentation by the
editor of the Wall Street Journal who explained to use the mechanics
in the logistics of printing the Asian Wall Street Journal. Wall Street
in New York closes at 4 AM Hong Kong time and they have to have the
Asian version of the Wall Street Journal on the street at 8 AM and
they have to have it on many of the international airplane flights
going out to some of the Asian capitals. So it's quite a feat to get
the Asian Wall Street newspaper printed that contains all the information
of what's happened on the US financial markets during the previous
24 hours. So, one has to mentally get orientated to these vast time
zone differences. The global village is very much a reality because
you can conduct business on many of the financial markets 24 hours
a day following the sun as it moves around the earth, and indeed many
people in fact do in today's financial markets. Terri's standing by
eager to give her presentation which we've chosen to do at the beginning
of our day, as opposed to late in the day. We find that by late in
the evening, 11 - 12 PM, we're just wiped out and really can't get
mentally geared up to do a good job of commenting to you about our
experiences and our learning. Terri's fresh this morning, eager to
get out and get going so I'm going to hand her the telephone before
she departs. Here's my partner, traveler, and a good sport, good companion
to be with - here's Terri.
Terri - As Don said, our days have been jammed packed and yesterday
was no exception. We started early, 7 o'clock, yesterday morning with
a spiritual breakfast presented by Ken Loe which was absolutely outstanding.
He re-interrupted a passage from Luke and gave us all something to
think about as his program was titled, "What really matters". And
I think very often we lose track of that and need to become grounded
again. That was the message that all of us took away from that presentation.
Later in the day women's health issues were discussed by two doctors.
Some astounding things are being done in the hormonal field which
we in the United States are not really privy to and it looks very
promising to alleviating a lot of problems that women have had in
the past.
We also attended a, what they call, Feng Shui, which is a belief by
the Chinese people of the positioning and placement of things relative
to their good fortune and it was extremely interesting to hear how
they would interrupt the placement of buildings, the furniture, where
the people are positioned, and numbers. The numerology aspect of it
is an entire field of its own. They gave very insightful examples
of how things had happened here. One of the examples they used in
Hong Kong was a building project going on. On June 6, 1966 there were
6 men killed at 6 o'clock in an elevator. The presenter went on to
say how the arrangement of the number of sixes corresponded with 666
in the bible and then tried to show that correlation and their Eastern
way of thinking. So it's been a wonderful, exciting experience here
in Hong Kong. As Don said, you sort of wear down after awhile and
that it seems to kind of all mel together and you're sorting out the
things that are important to you that you're going to come away here
from Hong Kong with.
Last night we had the honor of attending a dinner party at the Ferguson's
home, Douglas Ferguson is head of Prudential Asia in Hong Kong. He
and his wife share a very interesting history here. She's fourth generation
Hong Kong, her great grandfather came over from Scotland and her grandfather
was a prisoner of war during the Japanese takeover here. Douglas also
shares that history with his father being a celebrated war hero. Mrs.
Ferguson's husband is now called a Regent here and sits in the box
that the Queen once occupied at all of the horse races, which is one
of the Hong Kong past-times. They are very, very involved in horse
racing. They went on to tell how the proceeds from horse racing here,
which are in the billions of dollars, go for Chinese social projects,
and for that reason their taxation is kept down to 15%, which is a
very interesting way of doing things. Today promises to be a very
full and exciting day as well, ending with, as Don said, the culmination
at the Convention Center with the formal gala. Tomorrow we'll be traveling
onto Singapore. We'd like to send out, before the end of this report,
our love and wishes for good health and safety to all our friends
and family. Thank you for joining us.
Don - Well Terri just waved at me, meaning she's off for the
morning breakfast and I'll carry on here for a few more minutes. I
can just hear our children saying, "Oh God Dad, do you really have
to", because Terri did a terrific job. We sure want the Jones children
to know we love them and we think about them everyday. Just like you're
learning, we're out here learning as well. You certainly never stop
learning. I think learning is the food for the mind and that's what
we're doing out here.
Let me make some broad comments about some things that I think you'll
find of interest. I still receive, and probably very understandably,
from my associates in the US comments such as, "Gee are things really
quite bad out there?" There's a lot of skepticism as to things possibly
being good. I think back in the US, it's very hard, if not almost
impossible to differentiate the regions and what's happening out here
in Southeast Asia and Asia, so let met try to separate for you what
my sense is of what I'm seeing and observing. It's rather like different
regions of the United States. Certain regions are doing well or poorly
at different times, such as the Northeast, the Southeast, the Midwest.
Just as there are regional differences in the United States, there
is a dramatic difference between regions in this part of the world.
The absolute worse case situation is in Indonesia and Thailand and
the words that informed people use to describe circumstances there
are dire, chaotic, they just cannot emphasize how dramatic the devaluation
of currencies, food shortages and food drought, the possible outmigration
of people from that region to Australia, to Malaysia and the implications
on social pressures of outmigration of people. There's a lot of tension
in Indonesia and Thailand and the circumstances there are very, very
grime, which is another word to describe the circumstances there.
In Japan, everyone is basically saying, you ain't see nothing yet.
Japan has deferred its economic problems for six or seven years and
does not seem able to face up to them, similar to the savings and
loan problem in the United States. People are basically wondering
why Japan doesn't get on with life and there are various inherent
reasons, such as the bureaucracy of Japan sort of controls the thought
process of the entire country and no one is able to gain consensus
and the politicians are not in charge. Japan is considered to be,
despite its emergence over the last decade, sort of a neutered dog,
if you will. Don't mean to offend anyone with the analogy of a dog.
It just doesn't seem to get a grip on its crises within its banking
system and will not stimulate its economy. Enough about Japan. All
of this adds up to a spectacular opportunity for China. I think that's
perhaps the surprise of our visit thus far, although the problems
of China are so staggering in dimension and size that people actually
find it hard to talk about China in a believable way. Let me give
you an example. The military of China, the PLA, the People's Liberation
Army, owns and control 20,000 businesses. It is generally public knowledge
that the amount of spending as a percentage of GDP in China has been
declining, but the absolute amount of money has been rising as China
has modernized its army and military. China admits to having a defense
budget of $9-10 billion when most people believe in reality its $25-30
billion. The army itself controls 25,000 companies. So in China, you
don't know quite where to begin when you have an analysis. The good
news is China's army and military do not appear to be on the offensive,
although China has what's called "creeping aggressiveness" in this
region of the world dealing with some of it's neighbors in some regional
territorial disputes. North Korea is considered to be a basket case
- famine, malnutrition of children - and it's generally thought it's
going to take many years, if not decades, for North Korea to figure
out what its destiny is likely to be. Unemployment in China, while
one can speculate that the problems of this region for China, which
is exactly how the Chinese Thinkers approach the situation, unemployment
is thought to be 120 - 130 million people. It's the scale of the problems,
the opportunities, that are hard to comprehend, therefore people just
sort of laugh and chuckle about it and move on. Well what does all
this mean in the US? In the case of the deflation here and the severe
competition for production of goods and services, here's an example
of what it might all mean. In South Korea because of the need to generate
revenues, it means that there might be a $7,000 automobile in the
United States, it means there might be a $500 personal computer, because
these economies need to produce products. As it relates to Hong Kong
itself, all of this would appear to be nothing but sheer opportunity,
and while the Hong Kong equity and real estate markets are down about
30%, it would appear, in my view, to be an excellent time to get to
understand Hong Kong equities and investment opportunities in the
Hong Kong area. Singapore is also thought to be similarly well positioned
with Hong Kong. There's a tremendous rivalry between Hong Kong and
Singapore to be the financial capital of Asia and then there's another
incredible competition with a place called Shanghai, where it's said
there are 1,000 constructions cranes in the skyline of Shanghai. We've
talked to people who have been there in the past few weeks and they
say it's just mindboggling. We had the same experience when we were
in Beijing in the Fall, where thousands of construction cranes for
high rise buildings filled the sky of Beijing. Some day when you have
the trivia question of where is the world's tallest building, it has
just broken ground in Shanghai. The most recent tallest building is
in Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. The Hancock Building in Chicago is no
longer the highest building. This region has buildings that really
exceed anything that we see in any of the major cities in America.
Here in Hong Kong, which was a colony of a million people up to 20
years ago, has a skyline outside the window that is every bit as nice
as Houston or Dallas, it's not even nicer. The density of real estate
here, the shortage of real estate is a real problem. The cost of living
is quite staggering. We were told last night at dinner that an apartment
in a modern high rise buildings of 2500 square feet could go for many
millions of dollars to buy apartments or condominiums. Perhaps with
these word pictures you can get a little better sense of what we're
discovering. I think I'll not dwell too much more on some of these
details, it can also get overwhelming by the length of this report
and by the volume of this information.
It will be my opportunity today to visit the University of Hong Kong
and to see their highly automated, I'm told, library system and to
learn about their use of virtual libraries, similar to the Library
of Congress.
We're going to add some of the papers that we've received from the
presenters here to our web site. Papers having to do with the real
meaning of life and the spirituality presentation which was done by
a man who is Chinese, but who has training in the Baptist faith, quite
a culmination of ethnicity and belief systems. There are also papers
concerning Motorola in this region, a case study, which some of our
associates are going to find, in terms of its content, very, very
insightful as an academic piece. So we want you to know that we're
going to post, perhaps as many as six different papers, or summaries
of some of these presentations so that you can get even more information
if you have a desire to do that. Our friend and co-traveler here,
Gary Edens has shared with us a couple of web sites so that you can
learn more about Hong Kong and he tells us there are some spectacular
photographs. Here is the web site: www.asiawind.com,
and then there's a second web site, sunsite.unc.edu.
The purpose of this whole reporting process is to give you some insight
as to what we experience and what we do. I think in looking over the
material, that's a pretty good update for today. The weather here
has been steamy, cloudy, foggy, drizzly, there's nothing about the
weather that we would brag about. The work ethic here is unbelievable,
24 hours a day, people work very, very had to be competitive and to
produce goods. End of our update for this period of time. Well be
speaking to you before we leave Hong Kong, China for Singapore. And
with that, we wish you the best of health and the best of times and
thanks for finding the time to share this experience with us. We'll
complete this report by saying so long from Southeast Asia, from the
city of 6 million, the entrepreneurial capital of Asia, Hong Kong,
China.
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