Friday, August 8, 1997
DJ - Today we're going to being
the process of connecting the dots on
current events. That is a way of thinking
and expressing that we're going to gain
some perspective on current news events
that come from the locations where our
route will take us from Peking to Paris
and we have for you a series of news dispatches
that report a variety of subjects that
we ourselves are monitoring and we share
with you all as part of the experiential
learning.
This past weekend on August
10th, Sunday, flooding and a landslide
at Katmandu, Nepal, triggered by heavy
rains there, killed at least 20 people
in eastern Nepal on Sunday. One can surmise
that the highways will be affected and
washed out as a result of rains of that
magnitude. We are told that while the
majority of roads on the route from Peking
to Paris are paved, a good percentage
of the roads, 30-40% are not and that
they are subject to constant change in
large part because of the flowage of water
off of the Himalayan Mountains on both
sides.
Further down the road in
Pakistan, in the city of Lahore, thousands
of troops fanned out through the Punjab
province on Sunday to combat a wave of
religiously motivated killings. Troops
were taking up positions around the province
after a day of violence in which 16 people,
mostly Shiite Muslims were slain by unidentified
assailants. The attacks were the latest
in religious fighting this year between
the militant Sunni and Shiite Muslims
that has left 200 people dead in this
region of Pakistan.
India is receiving a lot
of attention in the American press. The
New York Times on Sunday featured a travel
article about India. The purpose and the
timeliness of the article has to do with
the recognition of the 50 years of freedom
and independence being observed by India
in the month of August. It was in fact
on August 14, 1947 that the transfer of
power from the Monarchy to the independent
nation of India took place. August 14,
1997 is the 50 year anniversary date of
the shift of that significant event in
India's history. There was another event
that began the independence drive and
it's an event that history says a British
General by the name of Dyer ordered troops
to open fire on a protest gathering in
April of 1919 killing some 400 people
and wounding hundreds more. That event
lead to the momentum for a freedom movement
that was never lost and was not finalized
until August of 1947. The significance
of that event is that it took place in
a city of Amritsar, near the Pakistani
border, 250 miles northwest of Delhi.
Amritsar is the only border crossing on
the India/Pakistan border and is a place
our travel will take us on the route from
Peking to Paris. We'll also give you a
weather report from Amritsar in just a
bit. One can't help but wonder if the
intense summer weather might contribute
to the mood of the people there. The Chicago
Tribune also has a front page story about
India's thirst for progress. It reports
that India has nuclear power, but is a
country of contradiction because many
people remain illiterate. Modern India
is a diverse nation brimming with contradictions,
according to the report which focuses
on the 50th year anniversary of independence
for India. 33% of the population is urban
and 40% is rural. About 300 million Indians
lives below the poverty line, that's in
excess of the entire population of the
United States. It's expected that by the
year 2000 the population of India will
swell to one billion people, that compares
to approximately 285 million population
in the United States. So India is certainly
a staggering and extraordinary place on
the planet and one that will hold great
fascination for us as we drive across
the northern part of India.
Getting back to the beginning
spot of the journey, China. We'll be spending
upwards of 10 days in China and one hears
story about the bureaucracy of China and
of the difficulty of dealing with the
Chinese system which has been part of
the experience of organizing the Peking
to Paris Motor Challenge. But on a more
practical level, Ameritech, the regional
telephone company in the Midwest of the
United States, announced this week that
it's abandoning its efforts to do business
in China, saying that regulatory delays
are making it too difficult to get a return
on its investment. In August of 1995,
two years ago, Ameritech unveiled a joint
venture with the Chinese Communications
System Company to provide management and
consulting for phone services in China.
Ameritech said this week it was pulling
out of the venture and would look for
investment opportunities in other parts
of Asia. To outside observers to see a
bureaucratic organization like Ameritech
withdraw from a bureaucratic society like
China certainly says an awful lot about
the realities of how the bureaucracies
exist in China when one of America's largest
bureaucracies found it very difficult,
if not impossible to deal with that reality.
There's a new report out of London this
week confirming what has been speculated
about in the past, and that is the remarkable
projection that China's economy will become
the world's largest by the year 2030,
a little more than 30 years from now.
The economy of China is expected to surpass
that of the United States and the significance
of this report is that this is the first
time an official Chinese institution has
forecast China's continuing strong economic
growth and has publicly acknowledged that
it will carry it past the United States
within a generation. Most recent estimates
are that the Chinese economy has been
growing at the official rate of 8.3 to
9.0 percent and by the year 2010, a forecast
average growth rate of 8 to 10 percent
will leapfrog China past Japan, and by
2030 it will be the largest economy in
the world. Quite a stunning economic forecast
and reality of the transformation of China.
Something that we expect to see firsthand
on our extensive trip across China.
Finally, we'll share with
you the weather forecast for this week
for some of this region. It's a rather
foreboding weather forecast. We can only
hope that there'll be some moderation
and some changes by September and October.
We'll begin first in Amritsar, which is
the city on the Pakistani Indian border
that is the only border crossing between
those countries. The forecast there is
quite amazing. For Monday through Wednesday
of this week, partly sunny, very hot and
very humid. The temperatures are expected
to range from 95 degrees to 106 degrees
and the low temperature is forecast to
be between 76 and 82 degrees. We're seeing
from that region humidity figures in the
upper 80s and low 90s percentile. In New
Delhi, the temperatures for this week
are to range between 91 and 99 degrees
and the forecast is for showers, hot and
very humid. So the monsoons are underway
in that region at this time. In Katmandu,
the elevation being 4500 feet, the temperature
is a bit more moderate. It's in the mid
80s - 83 to 86 degrees. And the forecast
there is for rain for five days in a row
which would give confirmation of the floods
that we have now heard about. The weather
forecast indicates rain, warm and very
humid for the Katmandu valley of Nepal.
Shifting back to the Pakistani city of
Lahore which we reported on earlier as
the source of military troops quailing
violence in that region due to religious
fighting. Lahore in Pakistan has an incredible
weather forecast that says rain, very
humid, very hot. The high temperature
early in the week was forecast to be 107
degrees with the lowest temperature this
week to be 94 in terms of the daytime
highs. The overnight low temperature in
this region is 78 to 86 degrees. Again,
those humidity figures are ranging in
the high 80s and the low 90s.
Well we've begun now to
watch current events and to begin to connect
the dots to round out the picture to create
an expectation of this extraordinary area
that we're going to be guests in for nearly
two months.
A representative of the
United States is currently in China this
week. The Security Advisor to the White
House, US National Security Advisor Sandy
Berger, is visiting through Wednesday
of this week in Beijing, China and that
has been the source of the clamp down
by the government of dissidents in the
Chinese capital. And so travel causes
one to pay greater attention to current
developments, current trends, current
events in regions that seem so distant
and so far away. That's today update.
Thanks for coming along on this verbal
portion of our journey. We're continuing
our planning and our preparation and all
appears to be going well at this time
as we get ready to undertake the real
travel from Beijing to Paris during September
and October. See you next time.